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Forecasting Demand for Bicycle Facilities

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Publication no: AP-R194-01 Pages: 42

This guide examines methods by which demand for cycling under different conditions can be estimated, and provides a framework for analysing data to develop demand forecasts for bicycle use. The guide is based on an international review of literature with an Australian focus on the purposes, advantages, limitations and methods of demand forecasting. The call for research in this area stemmed from the need for further policy development, evaluation and implementation of the Australian Bicycle Council's 'National Strategy 1999 - 2004'.All major forecasting methods are reviewed in the guide and grouped into eight categories including; comparison studies, aggregate behaviour studies, maximal share studies, sketch-plan method, regional travel models, discrete choice models, advanced behavioural modelling techniques and GIS based methods. In forecasting demand for bicycle facilities, the guide can assist practitioners in selecting the most appropriate forecasting method(s) based on the level and intensity of data requirements/collection, the size and scope of the proposed facility, and the level of technical skill required.


Table of Contents

AP-R194/01 FORECASTING DEMAND FOR BICYCLE FACILITIES
  • Executive Summary
  • Table of Contents
  • 1 INTRODUCTION
  • 2 METHODS OVERVIEW
  • 3 COMPARISON STUDIES
  • 4 AGGREGATE BEHAVIOUR STUDIES
  • 5 MAXIMAL SHARE STUDIES
  • 6 SKETCH PLAN METHODS
  • 7 REGIONAL TRAVEL MODELS
  • 8 DISCRETE CHOICE MODELS
  • 9 OTHER ADVANCED APPROACHES TO BEHAVIOURAL MODELLING
  • 11 CONCLUSIONS
  • 12 CONTACTS
  • BIBLIOGRAPHY

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